Thursday, January 3, 2008

What Inflation?

From Bloomberg:

The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 commodities climbed 22 percent last year, its sixth straight annual increase, powered by advances in wheat and soybeans. It was up 9.29 at 1,314.907 at 1:25 p.m. London time. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials gained as much as 1.11 to a record 367.97.


And consider these points:

Gold and platinum rose to records for a second day and crude oil traded near $100 a barrel as the dollar's slump enhanced the appeal of raw materials as an inflation hedge.

Agricultural commodities also rallied as wheat had its biggest two-day increase in four months, palm oil reached a record, soybeans traded near a 34-year high and corn neared an 11-year peak. Metals including gold, which rose beyond $850 an ounce for the first time yesterday, have more to gain, Evy Hambro, managing director of BlackRock Investment Management Ltd., said today.


Consider the following charts:



Corn has broken through key resistance areas twice in the last two years. In addition, it has broken out of a trading range that lasted for 8 years. An old adage among traders is the longer the base, the stronger the break-out.



Like corn wheat has also broken out of a long base. It spent the last few months of 2007 consolidating its gains.



Platinum is in the middle of a 6 year rally. Notice the strength of this rally -- it continues to push higher and higher in a disciplined manner.



Gold is also pushing to new highs. Notice it has broken through hey resistance levels twice in the last few months.



soy beans have moved into record territory as well, again breaking through key resistance over the last month.

Notice an important common feature to all of these charts: they are all "breaking through key resistance areas. That's an incredibly important fact; it indicates the bulls are running across a variety of commodity prices.