Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Dear God The Financial Press is Stupid

And from Bloomberg nonetheless. Consider this headline: Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Declined at Slower Pace

The decline in home prices in 20 major U.S. cities slowed in February for the first time since 2007, amplifying signals that the market may be stabilizing.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index’s 18.6 percent decrease compares with a record 19 percent decline the month before. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year-over-year records began in 2001.

Declining prices, Federal Reserve efforts to bring mortgage rates down, and government tax credits for first-time buyers may continue to support sales after an almost four-year slide. Still, mounting unemployment means purchases are unlikely to rebound quickly.

“We’re probably getting close to an inflection point,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who correctly forecast the drop in the index. Still, he said, “if we are indeed going to see a recovery in the second half,” the double-digit price drops will need to abate in the next few months.


Now -- let's look at the chart from the report, shall we?



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Yeah -- that's an inflection point if I ever saw one. And here is the opening paragraph from the actual report:



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Let's break this information down.

Declines are Broad Based.

50% (10 of 20) cities are showing a record decline

15 of 20 (75%) are showing declines of over 10%.

Here's what everybody is excited about




16 of 20 cities saw monthly improvements -- meaning they weren't declining as fast. 9 of 20 saw year over year improvements. And here's the glory hallelujah -- this is the first time since October 2007 when the decline did not set a record. My God -- we're saved! The recession is over! Start celebrating!

I don't know about you guys -- but the year over year chart tells me we're still in deep trouble.