Friday, April 17, 2009

Forex Fridays


The dollar chart formed a double top with the first top occurring late last year and the second top occurring at the end of February/beginning of March. Confirming this development is the corresponding weaker readings from the RSI and MACD on the second top. Prices are tied in with the SMAs in a tight formation signaling a lack of direction. But the recent price action looks like a triangle consolidation pattern which would be a bear market flag pattern.



The daily chart shows more clearly the bear market flag pattern. Prices started moving higher in mid-December, but broke through the trend in early March. They sold off but have since consolidated in a triangle pattern which looks an awful lot like a bear market consolidation pattern. Also note that despite prices moving higher since mid-March, neither the MACD nor the RSI are printing strong numbers. Instead they are both meandering higher. Finally, prices and the SMAs are in a tight formation, indicating a lack of conviction from traders.