The BLS reported that last week's initial jobless claims totaled 442,000. The 4 week moving average was 453,750. On an unadjusted basis, there were 432,166 initial claims last week, compared with 601,163 initial claims a year ago.
This is the lowest number of initial jobless claims, ex- the overdone Christmastime adjustment during the four weeks at the change of the year, since September 2008. The unadjusted number confirms that this time, there is no seasonal distortion detracting from the good number.
There had been concern that the recent pause in the downturn of initial claims portended a double-dip, or continued job losses. Today's number is important. It strongly suggests that the continuing trend of initial claims is downward. As the withholding tax data suggests (wait for tomorrow), this will finally be the month where - even leaving out census positions - there is actual job growth.
From Bonddad:
Here is a chart of the data:
Note that section B -- while still moving sideways -- is at the lower end of its range. I agree that this is an extremely good development. However, we need to see continued downward movement before I start celebrating.
