Monday, October 18, 2010

Yesterday's Markets






On Friday, the markets opened higher (a), sold off in a hurry (b) and then consolidated their gains in sideways action for the rest of the day, with price action that gravitated between (c), (d) and (e).


Notice the Bollinger band pattern -- the wide bands at the open (a) and the narrow bands at the end of the day (b). Bollinger bands measure volatility; as volatility drops the bands narrow. This is why the bands narrow when the markets are consolidating.


The 7-10 year part of the curve has been declining for the last two days, with counter-trend rallies (a) that use the EMAs for resistance.

For more on the technical outlook on the bond market, see this post from Corey over at Afraid to Trade. However, remember the Fed has announced a QEII program which will add a strong bid to the bond market for however longer that program is in effect.


The dollar rose a bit on Friday (a), with some consolidation along the way in the form of downward sloping bull market flags/pennants (b).


However, this was a counter-trend move; the dollar is still in a clear downtrend, which is adding a bid to the commodities market.



Commodities have also been selling off for the last two trading days, although there have been some counter-trend rallies as well (a).