Thursday, January 26, 2012

Morning Market

Yesterday's market was really a tale of two markets, with the prices moving sideways under a little after lunch, and then rallying strongly for the remainder of the day.  The main cause was the Fed releasing it's statement that interest rates should stay very low for a few years.


The daily chart shows that prices are still rallying and are in an uptrend.  Also note that the MACD have given a further buy signal.


Yesterday, we say a strong pop in gold on extremely high volume.  Also note the bullish underlying technicals -- the MACD is rising, the shorter EMAs are rising, and the A/D and CMF show money flowing into the market.  The big reason for the move is the perception among investors that the Fed's policy will be long-term inflationary.


On the weekly chart, gold prices have broken through a longer-term resistance line.  




Industrial metals are in a strong rally now.  They've moved through all the EMAs and the shorter EMAs are rising.  We're seeing money flow into the market and the MACD is rising.  This is good, because



The dollar dropped sharply yesterday, and looks to be moving lower.  The reason for the sharpness of the drop was, again, the Fed's move.  This was a double, negative whammy for two reasons.  First, it implies a possible future inflationary environment, and second, it means interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future.  Both outcomes are dollar negative.  The first scenario devalues the security and the second means that traders will not have a high interest rate when they purchase physical currency and park it in the US.